Methodology
How our neighborhood forecasts work
Forecasts are heuristic, directional outlooks — not deterministic predictions. Here's the methodology behind them and how to read them responsibly.
What we forecast
- Home value trajectory (3-year directional outlook)
- Rent trajectory
- Affordability pressure
- Long-term livability outlook
- Momentum (composite growth/stability signal)
How we forecast
We combine historical public data — Census ACS, housing market signals, employment and education shifts — with heuristic models that detect direction and magnitude. We deliberately avoid black-box point predictions and instead surface direction (improving / stable / declining), magnitude, confidence, and a plain-language rationale for each signal.
Confidence is always attached
Confidence reflects data completeness, recency, and geographic precision. A “limited confidence” forecast still has analytical value — it just means you should weight it accordingly and validate with on-the-ground research.
Investment signals
Pro+ forecasts include an investment signal (Strong / Consider / Watch / Avoid) accompanied by upside and risk bullets. These are interpretive research signals, not buy/sell recommendations.
What forecasts will not do
- Predict specific home prices or rents.
- Tell you when to buy, sell, or move.
- Account for personal financial, tax, or legal circumstances.
Forecasts are heuristic, directional, and confidence-banded. Future conditions may differ from projected trends.